Crude oil prices are likely to remain close to $100 a barrel while the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran continues, according to Per Magnus Nysveen, head of analysis at Rystad Energy. More than seven months have passed since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, and Nysveen told E24 that he sees few indications the fighting will end soon. Fresh strikes hit the Middle East over the weekend, including an attack on Saudi Arabia's main airport, E24 reports. "There are no prospects of the oil price improving. The conflict looks locked in place," Nysveen said. ## Why it matters The war has reshaped expectations for global energy markets, and the effects are being felt well beyond the region. Nysveen's assessment suggests consumers and businesses should prepare for a prolonged period of elevated fuel costs rather than a quick return to pre-conflict pricing. His view also carries weight because the prices companies actually receive differ from the headline figures traders watch. Physical oil deliveries in the North Sea have traded at roughly $140 a barrel, a level Nysveen links to high shipping rates for vessels leaving the Persian Gulf. That gap matters for oil producers, who book revenue at physical prices rather than the lower numbers quoted in financial markets. "We believe the oil price has had such an effect on demand that it won't go very much above $100. But the oil companies sell at physical prices, so they get more into the till than what you see in the prices in the financial market," he said. ## A conflict that keeps outlasting forecasts When the US and Israel first struck Iran, many observers expected the hostilities to be brief. Repeated pledges of peace have not held, and the war has instead stretched out over months, with new attacks continuing into the weekend. Nysveen's outlook points to a scenario in which the standoff persists for perhaps another half a year before the oil price makes a sharp move. Diesel prices, meanwhile, could climb further in the period ahead, he told E24. The combination of a frozen conflict and stubbornly high crude prices is feeding into a broader debate about energy security. Reports in Norwegian and international media have pointed to the war's potential to leave a lasting mark on oil demand growth, with coal drawing renewed interest as an alternative in some markets. Other coverage has described how the conflict is adding momentum to a global wave of electrification, as countries and consumers look to reduce their exposure to fossil fuel volatility. Those trends sit alongside a more immediate reality for households: once drivers switch to electric vehicles, falling oil prices do not reverse that decision, as one Norwegian business outlet noted. ## What to watch Whether the conflict shows any sign of de-escalation — and whether diesel costs continue their climb — will shape energy prices through the coming months. For now, Nysveen's message is that the market should brace for the standoff to run considerably longer.